Conclusions Regarding Mormons

While I'm not a Mormon, I must conclude: 

1. It's exceedingly unlikely, and nigh-impossible that Mormonism is a fraud (as impossible as Joseph Smith finding and translating lost gold plates from an ancient civilization?). That is, at the least, Mormons must actually believe their own religion - they are not actively engaging in fraud.
2. The beliefs of Mormons conform to reality better than what the average American (and person in the world) believes, so much so that Mormons as a group are far more successful than the average American family (and average family in the entire world!)
3. Mormonism is good for the average individual mormon!

To restate once more: Even if you don't believe it is possible for Joseph Smith to have done what he did, what has resulted is a system that is more true than whatever you (or I) believe! It conforms closer to reality, and provides better real world advantages to the individual and group as a whole.

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One can assume that, should current trends continue, you and I (and whatever you and I believe) will eventually go extinct, while Mormons and what Mormons believe will continue to flourish. Usually the smart thing to do, when one realizes that what they're doing is failing, and what someone else is doing is better, is to copy it - yet we (Americans, and Christians as a whole) would rather mock, slander, and come up with any excuse why it-just-can't-be-true.

I doubt Mormons would argue for themselves and their belief system as such, but the data conforms to their own belief that they are blessed by God. 

Analyzing Mormon Missionaries

I've spoken with Mormon missionairies a couple times in my life. My first thoughts were "I don't want to be bothered" and "what are you selling?"

Certainly, I've been harassed, misled, and ripped off by salesman in my life, happy to offer me something. That was certainly gut reaction, combined with intense skepticism, in relation to Mormons.

It bothered me: why are these men using salesman tactics? Even if they are genuine, they've certainly been coached on how to sell, how to appear trustworthy and honest, friendly, etc. They use affinity tactics (acting friendly, well dressed), reciprocation (offering assistance, giving a gift), etc.

One must ask though - how else would they do it? Presumably salesman tactics exist because they work, humans really respond psychologically to certain behavior and signaling. So really, our problem (my problem) with salesman tactics aren't that they work, so much as that they are fraudulently mimicked and used by most salesman. That is, we hate it because we are being defrauded for the others gain. That certainly is how most people view Mormonism (Smith as conman).

Yet, the individual Mormon missionaries can't be conmen in that sense. There is absolutely no financial benefit from what they do. They must pay (or beg) large sums of money to go on missionary trips, delay education, delay marriage, and actually forfeit a large amount of money they could be earning (and Mormons do earn above average salaries, as posted previously). I don't think we should ignore the social pressure within Mormon communities for individuals to do missionary work, but we must acknowledge that missionaries must, to some degree, want to do what they're doing more than all the above.

That is, not only do they get no financial gain from converting you, they pay their own way and accept a large financial loss.

That is, despite first impressions, and having grown sick of salesman-type behavior, I must conclude the missionaries, as a whole, are entirely genuine and committed. They are not, personally, attempting to commit fraud.

Why Do We Hate Mormons?

There is a lot of animosity among society-at-large towards Mormons. Often they are simply viewed as a foolish and gullible bunch, but there is often a disgust.

I wonder if it isn't jealousy? Having demonstrating that Mormons are smarter, wealthier, have larger families, and do less crime - it might not be surprising that many people would be jealous.

So why don't they join? (Why am I not a Mormon?) - the most common automatic dismissal is that Joseph Smith is an obvious fraud - a liar and a conman (hence the view of Mormons as gullible). The other aspect, and one I see a lot of complaint about on ex-Mormon forums, is that the Mormon life is very demanding. There are a lot of commitments to church and family that one is expected to fulfill. (That is, it's hard! and of course jealously often is related to seeing someone having-it-better and wanting that, but also not wanting to put in the hard work.)

Also, people don't like the Mormons because they're really annoying - always trying to get you to join their obvious fraud!

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So from a mainstream perspective, and it's quite a contradiction:

Here is a group of gullible suckers, who got conned into believing an obviously ridiculous lie. Also, they're really annoying because they're always try to trick us into the con too. Yet, and even more annoying, is they're smarter, wealthier, etc. than us! This obvious contradiction leads to the conclusion (or hope) that: "Sooner or later it's going to fall apart."

I also see a lot of complaints that the Mormon church is a fraud, a big corporation out to fleece its members (suckers).

Yet, I've never heard of a fraud, or a fraudulent company lasting nearly 200 years. There are very few legitimate corporations that old, and they appear to have all been bought-out by others (or, at least, completely adapted or changed their business model while retaining their name only).

"Something" About Mormons

Assuming the previous estimates were correct or close-enough approximations, I'd like to explore this idea some more.

Thought of as a country and comparing it to other majority ethnically European nations, Mormons would have: the highest average income, the highest average IQ, the highest average birth rate, and the lowest crime rate.

This is pretty astounding, incredible really, especially among a group of people who are thoroughly engaged in the world: they often attend public schools, have no restrictions on the use of technology, compete for the same jobs, and have no restrictions on contraception. That is, they are fully integrated into mainstream society.

Some notable differences: the social life of active Mormons is highly integrated into the church, while they don't permit alcohol or coffee - two major aspects of non-Mormon socializing. The high income is also incredible, in that most Mormons idealize a mother staying-at-home, while the rest of American society has shifted towards dual incomes.

While moral norms of society as a whole are shifting, most people would agree that Mormons are, very quantifiably, skewed towards the ideals of society - what most people desire and still view as good.

Estimating: Mormon Divorce Rate

I'm sticking-to-my-guns with the same old crass estimation method as before, where any deviation from the US average is assumed for the non-Mormon population of Utah.

US divorce rate: 3.4 per 1,000
Utah divorce rate: 3.6 per 1,000
Estimated Mormon divorce rate: 3.7

If accurate, the Mormon divorce rate would be 9% higher than the national average. This actually surprises me quite a bit! The previous estimations have definitely biased me in favor of the Mormon effect

One potentially viable explanation could be that it's a side effect of Mormon's getting married younger. The average age for a woman getting married in Utah is 23.3, the second lowest in the country. This is significantly lower than the national average of 27 for women (16% younger). If we apply our crass estimation method, the average age for Mormon women would be 21 (28% younger).

So Mormon women are married, on average 6 years younger then the general population. Also, it appears lower income is correlated to a higher divorce rate - and Mormons first get married when income is lowest for a family. So, when one considers the 28% younger average marriage age among Mormons women, the 9% higher divorce rate doesn't makes more sense.

Another way to look at it: if the median length of marriage in the US is 40 years, Mormons are, on average, aiming at 15% longer marriage than the average American couple, while also handling the stress of 40% more kids, the stress of lower initial family incomes, and only having a 9% higher divorce rate as a side effect. That's not too shabby!

Possible further analysis: We should probably account for shifting in cultural norms. While Mormons try prevent sex before marriage (hence the younger marriage age), society at large encourages sexual relations before marriage. If broad societal sexual practices were examined from a Mormon (or traditionally Christian) moral perspective (i.e. each ended sexual relationship as a "divorce"), the Mormon divorce rate might appear much lower than the national average.

Estimating: Mormon Crime Rate

Using US census data on violent crimes from 2006, and the same method to estimate as above, Mormons have an average violent crime rate of 72 per 100,000. This is 85% below the national average.

This is incredibly low! The next closest would be Maine, at 116 per 100,000.

Estimating: Mormon Household Income

Using the same method as in the previous two posts, and using data from 2013, the average Mormon family in Utah has an income of $68,696. They earn approximately 32% more income than the average US household.

Thought of as a "state", that would give Mormons the second highest income in the Union. That's with a population group where many (most?) of the women choose not to work!

Looked at as a country, the Mormons would have the highest income in the world. Again, notably, among a group where the women choose not to work.

Estimating: Mormon IQ

Using the same method used on birth rate, the average Mormon IQ is 103. This is 5% higher than the national average.

Playing the same country mind-game used before, this would make Mormons the 8th smartest country in the world. Notably though, Mormons would be the smartest European-descended country in the world (the #1-7 positions are all filled by Asian countries).

Estimating: Mormon Birth Rate

I've seen various estimates, but wanted to quickly come up with my own.

The 2010 birthrate of Utah is: 2.449 (highest in the union)
The average 2010 birthrate of the US is: 1.931

The Mormon population of Utah as of 2010: 62.1%

If we assume the non-Mormon birthrate is equivalent to the average birthrate of the US, we can estimate a 2.765 birthrate for Mormons in Utah. This is 43% above the national average!

If Mormons were their own country (of 15 million - making them the 70th largest in the world), they would be the 77th most fertile country in the world. Notably though, they would be the 2nd most fertile "first world nation" (with Israel as the first). They would be the most fertile nation in the world of mostly European descent. The next closest would be New Zealand, with a birth rate of 2.05.

If the Mormon population, as a whole, continues to compound at the current birth rate, in 10 generations it will be 375 million, which would make it the largest predominately European-descended "nation" in the world - by a significant amount, considering the European and European-descended nations of all other countries are currently engaged sub-replacement birth rates.

Tentative Theory: Why is personal revelation limited?

AKA "Why don't we all see angels?"

Because the purpose of Christian life is personal spiritual progress (theosis) God desires that we seek the good on our own. Personal revelation is often subtle, or limited, because it is enough to provide us answers and leads us on in the right direction. If God were to each and individually make an overt revelation it would: 1) Increase our personal risk of rejecting Christ's salvation, and 2) Potentially limit our theosis. 3) Finally, it may simply be too bright for some of us to see - it's possible we would be blinded even in the face of a large miraculous revelation.