Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Estimating: Mormon Birth Rate

I've seen various estimates, but wanted to quickly come up with my own.

The 2010 birthrate of Utah is: 2.449 (highest in the union)
The average 2010 birthrate of the US is: 1.931

The Mormon population of Utah as of 2010: 62.1%

If we assume the non-Mormon birthrate is equivalent to the average birthrate of the US, we can estimate a 2.765 birthrate for Mormons in Utah. This is 43% above the national average!

If Mormons were their own country (of 15 million - making them the 70th largest in the world), they would be the 77th most fertile country in the world. Notably though, they would be the 2nd most fertile "first world nation" (with Israel as the first). They would be the most fertile nation in the world of mostly European descent. The next closest would be New Zealand, with a birth rate of 2.05.

If the Mormon population, as a whole, continues to compound at the current birth rate, in 10 generations it will be 375 million, which would make it the largest predominately European-descended "nation" in the world - by a significant amount, considering the European and European-descended nations of all other countries are currently engaged sub-replacement birth rates.

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